My "Substack" ratings page

I've long liked using ratings. I like a benchmark from which to judge performance. I find some ratings builders unnecessarily confusing. Endless numbers, endless formula, all designed to create a confusing final number without any sense of how it's been built.

What I've tried to produce here are ratings which are easier to read, more user-friendly and which still reflect the nuance of a race rather than just a simple ranking. 

Below is what each column does. 

  • The Rating column provides a basic assessment of a horse's recent best performance(s). This is the performance I estimate a horse could run to if everything goes well.
  • Not everything will go well. So the next columns try to give a sense of whether everything might go well today.
  • The Going/Distance/Course columns then tell you whether the horse has performed up to that level of performance in today's conditions. If it has, a Positive is put in the column. If it hasn't, a Negative is put in the column. If there's not enough information, a None is put in the column.
  • The final pace column tries to predict how the horse might position itself: 0= a likely hold up horse, 10= a likely front runner.


They don’t give a ranking of the likeliest winners. These ratings try and give a flavour of how a race might be won and who might benefit.

How to use them? It's obviously up to you but here are a few ways I use them.

  • A top rated, with 3 positives, and a "10" pace rating at a track where front runners do well, would be of obvious interest. Unfortunately, they don't come along every day!
  • A race where one horse might get an easy lead and is good enough to make the most of it.
  • Three positives can always run their race.
  • A favourite that looks vulnerable and can be taken on.
  • A handicap debutant who is quite high in the table at big odds.
  • An outsider who is top rank.
These ratings won't be for everyone because they don't do all the work for you. But if you enjoy reading a race, I think these ratings will help you a bit. Ultimately, they're a guide. 

Subscribe and let me know what you think.








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