System bets

If you just want a link to the channel, click here. 

INTRODUCTION

System bets are where you create a number of rules which generate qualifiers which you then back blindly (i.e. back independent of any race reading or individual opinion about the horse in that race). 

The joy of system betting is that if it works, you get a regular profit without having to spend hours scouring the form book. The tricky bit is making it work...

System betting is as old as the hills, either as a serious pursuit or as a bit of fun. I remember as a child that my Gran used to back any horse where the second and penultimate letter were the same. My Uncle backed any horse with King in the title. 

AN IDEA

Thankfully, my Gran and Uncle weren't betting more than pennies on those selections. Away from silly systems like that, systems can be ground in any logic or idea. The idea could be that an excellent conditional jockey seems to be going unnoticed and you'll back them until everyone else realises how good they are. It could be that a certain type of handicap debutant gets dismissed as a no hoper when they're actually anything but. It could be that outsiders in small races are ignored while everyone else focuses on the favourites. 

The one thing that should connect them is that they are a logical idea that is influenced on the horse's performance and/or price, and that the market (e.g. the Betfair exchange) is underestimating its likelihood of winning. Success in betting is about more accurately identifying the chance of success than the market does, finding the edge and then betting on it in a sensible fashion over time. If you can find systems that can do that, you're in luck.

When they're generally profitable, system bets are excellent. You spend a minute or two each morning putting the bets on to Betfair SP while the kettle boils, and check them that afternoon or evening. If you're able to emotionally detach yourself from it, you could even put your entire betting bank into the exchange platform, put the individual bets on each day and only check your balance periodically to see how you're getting on without the excitement/pressure of watching a race. 

They're also potentially good in that they remove the day-to-day errors of betting. The hard graft goes into the ideas that form the systems. It's enjoyable research putting together a system rather than nervously weighing up the intricacies of every horse in the race, the conditions, the weather and so on. On racedays, it's clinical and emotionless and that can be a good thing.

There are downsides. Are you sure the idea that's produced profit in the past is down to the idea, or just coincidence? Even if it was the idea, has the market cottoned on or have circumstances changed? If I got 1000s of subscribers each putting £100s on to Betfair SP, the systems would quickly stop being profitable. 

You'll also find that sometimes you back a horse that you don't fancy at all. It feels daft some days. Some days, those daft system bets prove to be better than my own thinking. The important thing to remember is that the bet is on the idea rather than your own specific conclusion of that race.

MY SYSTEMS

I first started testing one or two systems a few years ago, when somebody was testing an idea on an online forum. 

I then started to save a series of ideas. Some trainer based, some jockey based, some market based. Some were very clearly backfitted (more on that later) and quickly discarded. Some were promising, and I kept working on them. Eventually, I had a few dozen systems that I decided to let run. I didn't back them, but tracked them to Betfair SP. 

I have about 40 or 50 systems on the go at the moment from which I post qualifiers. Some produce qualifiers most days of the season. Some produce only a rare qualifier every week or two. 

Where possible, I have tested these so that they're not merely "backfitted" (profitable in the past but not because of the specific ideas you saved in your system), but there's every chance that something that has previously been profitable won't be profitable in the future.

As with any betting approach, treating it as an investment means understanding drawdowns, accounting for them with betting banks, analysing them and responding to them well.

TESTING TO DATE

In November 2021, I decided to start testing them publicly, setting up a Telegram channel and posting the qualifiers each morning, tracking the qualifiers using level stakes to Betfair SP. Basic results to date below. For full results, see here.

Results so far (before Betfair's 2% commission)

• November 21: +16.06pts
• December 21: +85.99pts
• January 22: +13.72pts
• February 22: -4.22pts

• Total to date: 92pts profit
• ROI: 18%

The general strike rate for all of these systems together has been 14%. As such, long losing runs have happened already and will happen again. They'll be quite common with (hopefully) the occasional big priced winners and lots of smaller priced winners thrown in. Some months will lose (as February currently is at the time of writing).

THE FUTURE

I started the system bets Telegram channel to see if the system bets continued to be profitable (1) and if there was sufficient interest to do something public with them (2). So far, both of those have been positive.

I'll continue to test the system bets as is (for free, on Telegram) until the end of the national hunt season (end of April) where I'll make a decision as to what happens next. Largely, this is dependent on how they perform! But also on interest, time pressures and so on. I have far fewer systems for the flat season/summer months (although still plenty for a functioning service), so I may take a break or I may set up a professional service restricted to subscribers.

SIGN-UP AND MORE INFO

Thanks for reading. To access the system bets click here, and for more information feel free to reach out to me on Twitter.